THE POWER OF DOUBT
Why no one outside of Denver believes in the Broncos - and how it's secretly a great thing
“Haters gonna hate. And ain’ters gonna ain’t.” Those words of wisdom come from James Franco in the recent movie “The Interview”, and after watching that scene the other day combined with the looming start of the NFL regular season, it got me thinking. Why does the entire sports world think that the 2016 Denver Broncos are going to be a huge disappointment? I realize why most people assume a different team will win Super Bowl LI next February. Repeating as NFL champions is very hard, and it hasn’t been done since New England in ’04 and ’05. It feels like there is more parity in the NFL than every other major sports league combined. Members of the media are bashed for picking the defending champs because it makes them look safe and boring. So I completely understand why the Broncos aren’t getting much championship love for this upcoming season.
But here’s the part that baffles me. Everywhere I have looked, every article I have read, every video I have seen; they all have one thing in common. The 2016 Denver Broncos will stink. They will probably miss the playoffs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them fall below .500. All of these NFL “experts” have reached this conclusion, and I just cannot comprehend it. You might be thinking I am just a giant homer for Colorado sports (very true), but I am also capable of stepping back from my Bronco bias and looking at the big picture.
NFL Spin Zone has the Broncos “taking a step backwards” and going 10-6. Yahoo Sports lists the Broncos as the 8th best team, saying we were “lucky” last year and “it’s crazy to think they’ll get all those breaks again.” Forbes is picking the Kansas City Chiefs to unseat the Broncos as AFC West Champs. USA TODAY has the Broncos “expecting a regression” and missing out on the playoffs at 8-8. Colin Cowherd thinks the Broncos had “too much off season noise” and will “fall off a cliff, finishing 6-10.”
I could go on, but the overwhelming consensus is that the Broncos are going from the champions of the world to the champions of mediocrity in less than 6 months. After cycling through piles of Broncos hate, I have grouped the doubters into certain categories. Each group of analysts has a particular reason that Denver will hardly be relevant this year. Let’s sort it out and see if their opinions have any legitimacy.
REASON #1: The Broncos Quarterbacks stink
This is definitely the most common belief as to why Denver will struggle this year. The Broncos lost Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and without a doubt the best athlete there has ever been at pre-game preparation tactics in any sport. And the defending champs are replacing him with a guy who was a 7th round draft pick and has 0 pass attempts in his NFL career. So it makes sense as to why people think the QB situation is in serious trouble. It’s not like quarterbacks are the same as long snappers; they’re kind of an important part of the team. So if you don’t have a good quarterback, you’re going to suck, right?
Wrong. There are multiple examples of a pretty bad quarterback somehow dinking and dunking their way to being a Super Bowl champ. The best example of this is a quarterback who lost his starting job due to injuries and poor play, took it back late in the season, and still was awful throughout the post season. But it didn’t matter, because his teammates and coaches were able to lift him up and win despite his terrible play. This should sound pretty familiar, because we just watched it. That quarterback is Peyton Manning.
You might think I am exaggerating, but in 2015, Pro Football Focus ranked Peyton Manning 29th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, below his former teammate Brock Osweiler and other guys like Cleveland quarterback Josh McCown. If you’re rated lower than a Cleveland QB, you are clearly not having a good season. Manning had the 4th worst passer rating in a Super Bowl game for the winning quarterback, and he also had the 4th worst passer rating of a Super Bowl winning quarterback throughout the season. Yet none of those stats compare to this one: Out of the 34 quarterbacks to qualify for a passer rating in 2015, Peyton Manning finished….34th. Dead last. He was literally the worst quarterback in the league last year! And yet he won the freaking Super Bowl!
None of that seems to make any sense, but what makes even less sense is that the experts think the Broncos quarterback play will be worse in 2016. The best part about this whole argument is the fact that it’s not really possible for the QB play to be worse. Trevor Siemian could very well come close to dead last, but there is no way he can be worse than Peyton was last year. So it doesn’t even matter that Siemian Toast Crunch (the only nickname for him I could think of at the moment) has never thrown a pass in a meaningful NFL game, because there is no doubt he will be at least a slight upgrade over our old noodle-armed Sheriff. I love you Peyton, but watching you throw an infinite amount of wobbling ducks last year was very painful. At least Siemian throws a very tight spiral. That alone should be an upgrade.
So that theory can officially be debunked. The second major theory has to do with the other side of the ball.
REASON #2: The defense cannot possibly be that good again
This one makes a little more sense, as the 2015 defense was incredible. You can look at almost every major defensive statistic, and the Broncos were either at the top or somewhere in the top 10. According to footballoutsiders.com, the Broncos had the top overall defense, were first against the pass, fourth against the run, and they played the 4th hardest schedule against opposing offenses, so it’s not like they were putting up these numbers against cupcakes. The Broncos led the league in sacks, were top 10 in 3rd down percentage, and had key turnovers or defensive TD’s that changed games in their favor.
Analysts are predicting that we will not be leading all of these categories again, and they are probably right. NFL coaches always make scheme adjustments in the offseason to counter a team who tore their way through the league. It’s the main reason teams don’t repeat as champs. But even if we aren’t the number 1 defense next year, there is no reason to believe we won’t still be in the top 5.
The only key defensive players they lost were Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. There were a few depth guys like David Bruton or Antonio Smith who are elsewhere now, but that is not a lot of turnover. Malik was a great inside pash rusher, but it was mainly because of the constant single teams he was facing due to the two legendary edge rushers on either side of him. Trevathan was a speedy, yet somewhat fragile linebacker who rarely missed tackles and excelled in coverage. But he is an inside linebacker, one of the most replaceable positions in the NFL. The Broncos other members of the defense will barely notice their former teammate’s absence.
Not to mention John Elway again drafted plenty of young defensive talent to fill any depth questions. That swarming defense that single handedly won the Super Bowl might not be quite as legendary, but it still is one of, if not the best, in all of football. This might not even matter, because any slight regression the defense takes should be offset by the slight progression the offense takes. So for the experts to say that our defense has slipped clearly forgot all about the players we still have while they focus on the few solid, but not spectacular guys who left. Which brings us to the next point:
REASON #3: The Broncos lost other key pieces as well
This is the hardest part about winning a Super Bowl. Everyone on the team can say they were responsible, and thus can go chase bigger paydays elsewhere. I already mentioned Jackson and Trevathan doing just that in Jacksonville and Chicago. Evan Mathis and Louis Vasquez, our two starting guards, departed as well. Our longest tenured Bronco Ryan Clady was traded to the Jets. Brock Osweiler left for more money and more Texas. Oh, and that Peyton guy retired. So....that’s it? All we lost was some easily replaceable defensive players, a few decent offensive linemen, and two pretty awful quarterbacks? The more that I think about it, the Broncos didn’t really lose anyone that important.
Everyone is forgetting that all of our major stars are still on this team. A strong running back crew is back, led by C.J. Anderson, as well as a rookie draft-day steal in Devonte Booker, who solidified his backup spot with a stellar preseason. The pairing of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders is still a top 10 WR combo. The Broncos still have solid, young offensive lineman who should continue to gel as a unit throughout the season, not to mention an elite free agent signing in new left tackle Russell Okung.
On defense, the loaded D-line/LB core still has Von Miller, Sly Williams and Derek Wolfe, and second year stud Shane Ray will spell in for an aging DeMarcus Ware more often this year to keep him fresh for the winter. Our leading tackler Brandon Marshall returns. The best secondary in the league is 100% intact (Legion of Who?), and even though Aqib Talib may or may not have shot himself in the leg this offseason, his possible legal issues shouldn’t be too severe considering no one knows what the hell happened that night. Not to mention that he is already running and is expected to be ready for the season opener if he doesn’t get suspended, which is looking more and more unlikely as the clock keeps ticking.
Then there is the coaching staff that is also 100% intact, and enters their 2nd year much more comfortable together. Kubiak still has to deal with the ever scrutinized QB play, but Wade Phillips has no such problems with his defense. His successful scheming against elite offenses is one the most important parts of the Broncos chance at a repeat.
Sometimes it’s more about the people you keep than the few who signed big elsewhere. Another so-called problem is the players the other teams in the division signed specifically to compete with Denver
REASON #4: The AFC West competition is too tough
This is by far the worst reason I have seen as to why Denver will hit rock bottom. So many members of the media have fallen in love with the Oakland Raiders. You know, the team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2002! So let me get this straight; a team that’s gone 14 seasons without appearing in the postseason is supposed to dethrone the team that has won the past 5 division crowns, won 2 AFC Championships in the past 3 years, and just won a Super Bowl? Go ahead and be my guest; pick the Raiders if you’re really feeling lucky.
A lot of that last paragraph was my Denver bias speaking, as Oakland actually has gotten way better lately. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack form a young trio that is very scary. The team spent big in free agency on quality veterans, and appears to be forming an NFL roster that is playoff worthy. Plus, they smacked the Broncos at Mile High, as Khalil Mack ripped poor Michael Schofield apart for 5 sacks that day. That was the day the Raiders officially became sort of good. I can see them competing for a wild card spot.
But to dethrone the champs? I need to see more from Carr and Cooper, and less of DA RAYYYYYYYDUHS blowing late leads. Kansas City seems like the more logical pick to take over the division, but they didn’t sign anyone in free agency and Justin Houston, the team’s star pass rusher, is still recovering from a torn ACL and could miss the majority of the season. Plus Jamal Charles is coming off his 2nd ACL tear and doesn’t appear ready to start the season, and Alex Smith has a max throwing range of about 4 yards. Another solid wild card team that did beat us in our own place last year, but I can’t say that they are better than Denver.
Don’t even get me started on San Diego. They play in a city that doesn’t care about them, their 2016 first round pick JUST NOW signed with them due to contract disputes and will be adjusting to the schemes he didn’t learn in training camp, and they just drove away their star safety because he didn’t go back to the locker room at halftime during a meaningless game so he could stay on the field to see his daughter perform in a dance ceremony. Seriously. The team fined him for that and was upset after he chose to go play in Baltimore instead. So yeah, not exactly worried about Ol’ Phillys Rivers and the Chargers.
Maybe the AFC West did get better. Maybe Oakland and Kansas City are playoff teams this year. Maybe the division will be a brutal battle that goes down to the wire. But what I can definitively say is that I’m not too worried about our AFC West brethren. It’s the Steelers, the Bengals and the Patriots that are the real threats.
REASON #5: The Broncos have run out of luck
The final reason is an intangible that is the hardest thing to predict, yet it makes the most sense as to why a team will win or lose. Lady Luck was absolutely on Denver’s side last year, and that is something I will not even bother disputing. From Darian Stewart’s miraculous week 1 interception to Von Miller’s Super Bowl-winning swat, the Broncos had just about everything go their way last year. I could list all the examples of our good fortune, but it could take up hundreds of paragraphs. The few standout moments were so lucky, like the KC fumble-score in Week 2, the fumble recovery in the snow on the punt against the Pats in week 12, New England choking against Miami to give Denver home field advantage, the Roby punch fumble in the Pittsburgh playoff game, and Brady ignoring a wide open Gronk on the 2 point conversion in the waning moments of the AFC Championship Game. And once again, those were just a few of the many lucky moments.
Our health was solid, as no one that important missed significant time. Everyone was ready to go for the playoffs other than the two offensive linemen Clady and Sambrailo. We faced Pittsburgh in the playoffs without their best player Antonio Brown. And in the Super Bowl, the Panthers dropped multiple interceptions, they forgot to blow up Jordan Norwood on that huge punt return because they assumed he signaled fair catch, and Cam Newton was a fraction of a second away from hitting his target on a deep throw on the 2nd Von Miller fumble that could have changed the game.
All of these things going Denver’s way are simply unprecedented. The Broncos finished an incredible 11-3 in one score games, and continued to sneak out victories against worse teams and steal victories away from good teams. This is the only reason that truly makes sense, and it’s the one that scares me the most because it is uncontrollable. Luck can favor anyone at anytime, even the Raiders. It would be foolish to expect all the bounces to go our way again.
But the great thing about luck is that it doesn’t always even out. It is possible to get lucky twice. You can roll a dice and get a six three times in a row. Luck can stay with you for an extended period of time if you stack the odds in your favor. It would also be just as foolish to expect none of the bounces to go the Bronco’s way again.
The 2016 season is filled with excitement. The race is once again wide open, and you could legitimately make a case for almost half of the teams to win the Super Bowl. But don’t put the Broncos among them, of course, because the media has already ruled them out. At first, I was angry when I was reading all these Denver-slamming articles. I am a die-hard Broncos fan that bleeds orange and blue, and it really pissed me off listening to all the Bronco hate that the team didn’t deserve. This is my team, dammit! You don’t get to talk like that about MY TEAM, the team that just steamrolled everyone on their way to a title, and get away with it!
But after settling down and spending some time thinking about it, all of this doubt is a great thing. It’s great for the coaches to prove that they are truly elite at what they do. It’s great for the players to shut all of these journalists up with their high level of play. It’s great for the front office to show that they are the best ownership/management team in professional sports. It’s great for the fans to get riled up at home games, and make them care even more about this team. It’s great for the city of Denver to believe that this recent championship was not a fluke, and that Colorado can continue to pile up the sports hardware as high as the Rocky Mountains.
I’ve realized that there is nothing better than being doubted when going into a season. Doubt is the ultimate motivational tool. And don’t think that the 2016 Broncos haven’t been listening. They hear it from the media all day long. This team had a chip on its shoulder last year, and that strong mentality paved the way to a Super Bowl win. That chip is still there, and it’s even bigger this year. Expect this team to come out ready to show the world that last year was not a fluke. Last year was the norm. More rings are on the way.
It’s just like James Franco said. “They hate us ‘cause they ain’t us!” The NFL world hates the Broncos because they proved them all wrong. Now Denver is back, and ready to do it all over again. The media has already tossed them aside for prettier teams that reside in bigger cities. So the only real reason I can think of as to why no one thinks the Denver Broncos will repeat as champions at Super Bowl LI? Just take it from James. He said it best. “Haters gonna hate, and ain’ters gonna ain’t.”
*All statistical claims are backed up with corresponding links. The images used here were taken from Getty Images or AP Images. All other aspects of the illustrations came straight from the massive brain of Woody Oliver